Fort Bend ISD projects losing up to $12 million in the 2026-27 school year as more than 2,000 students use Texas Education Freedom Accounts. The Tuesday, Nov. 3 election could determine whether the program expands or faces repeal.
State Rep. Gene Wu, D-Houston, said Democrats need to flip 14 Texas House seats to claim the chamber and mount a challenge to TEFA when the Legislature reconvenes in January 2027, CW39 reported. Republicans hold an 88-62 majority in the Texas House, according to the Texas Tribune's election guide. On the other side, Comptroller Don Huffines has asked the Legislature to raise TEFA's base funding by $1 billion for the 2028-29 biennium, bringing the total above $2 billion, according to the Texas Tribune.
The stakes are concrete locally. Fort Bend ISD had 2,024 funded Texas Education Freedom Account (TEFA) participants as of July 29, according to the Texas Comptroller's annual demographic report. Stafford MSD had 43. Statewide as of the same date, about 85,344 students held funded accounts and more than 121,000 remained on a waitlist.
FBISD projects losing 700 to 1,100 students and $7.8 million to nearly $12 million in state funding for 2026-27 because of TEFA participation, according to Jaretha Jordan, deputy superintendent of teaching and learning. Each percentage point of attendance equals roughly $6 million for the district, former FBISD Chief Financial Officer Bryan Guinn told Community Impact.
The district drew 8,429 TEFA applications for 2026-27, the third-highest total in Texas. Of those, 2,672 were awarded as of June 2026, second in the Houston area only to Houston ISD, KPRC 2 reported. Statewide, 43% of students selected for TEFA attended a public school in 2024-25. The other 57% were already in private school or homeschooled.
FBISD launched seven new programs for 2026-27 to retain and recruit students after five years of enrollment stagnation or decline. The district expects its smallest kindergarten class in 18 years. Kelly Schlacks, FBISD executive director of finance, said in August that a more reliable enrollment number was expected by mid- to late September.
Political battle lines
State Sen. Carol Alvarado, D-Houston, called the program a disaster at a Sept. 25 event but said Democrats have little chance of taking the Texas Senate.
State Rep. Cody Vasut, R-Angleton, pushed back. "I think that the good families of this state that have applied for those… and now have their kids in an environment of choice, I think they would disagree strongly with repealing that program," Vasut said.
State Rep. Barbara Gervin-Hawkins, D-San Antonio, said she expects Democrats to pick up six to eight seats, short of the 14 needed for a majority but enough to shift negotiations. Legislative budget experts predicted TEFA spending could reach roughly $4.8 billion by 2030.
What's at stake for families
Accepted TEFA students enrolling in private schools receive $10,474 for tuition and related expenses. Homeschool students are eligible for $2,000. Students with disabilities can receive up to $30,000. About 80% of participating students come from families earning below 200% of the federal poverty level, or $66,000 for a family of four.
Toni Templeton, a research scientist at the University of Houston Education Research Center, warned that pulling public school dollars could reduce educational opportunities and create employment problems in smaller communities.
The last day to register to vote is Monday, Oct. 5. Early voting runs Monday, Oct. 19 through Friday, Oct. 30. The 2027 legislative session, when lawmakers will set TEFA's next two-year budget, begins in January.
