Democrat James Talarico leads Republican Ken Paxton by 18 percentage points among Fort Bend County likely voters in the race for U.S. Senate, according to a new poll.
The survey of 1,200 likely voters was conducted between Sept. 9 and Oct. 2 by pollsters Mark Jones and Michael Adams for the Barbara Jordan School of Public Affairs at Texas Southern University, The Texan reported. The poll carries a margin of error of 2.83 percent. Fifty-six percent of respondents said they would vote for Talarico, 38 percent for Paxton and 2 percent for Libertarian Ted Brown. Four percent were undecided.
Missouri City and Stafford voters will see all three candidates on their ballots Nov. 3. Early voting runs Oct. 19 through Oct. 30, according to ABC13.
Talarico, a state representative from Austin, is a former public school teacher first elected to the Texas House in 2018, according to his Texas House biography. He defeated U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett in the Democratic primary. Paxton, the state attorney general, won a GOP primary runoff against incumbent Sen. John Cornyn after receiving an endorsement from President Donald Trump, ABC13 reported.
The Fort Bend County results reflect a swing back toward Democrats after Republican gains in 2024, when Kamala Harris won the county with 49.33 percent and Donald Trump took 47.75 percent, according to The Texan. Pollster Jones told The Texan that Fort Bend has been trending blue for some time, though 2022 and 2024 were strong years for Republicans.
"If you sort of parse out the numbers, that would translate into a statewide election where Paxton is down by two or three and Abbott is up by three or four, if the trend is similar elsewhere," Jones said, according to The Texan.
Statewide polls have put the race close. The Texas Tribune reported that polls show Paxton and Talarico running close, with a slight edge for the Democrat. Texas has not elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate since 1988, KPRC reported.
Both candidates have campaigned in the Houston area. Talarico scheduled an Oct. 21 appearance in Richmond at Safari Texas Ranch as part of his "Clear Eyes, Full Hearts" tour, according to KPRC. His campaign has focused on lowering costs for working families and making health care more affordable.
On his campaign website, Talarico says he wants to lower property taxes, fix the power grid and restore abortion rights. He has also proposed what he calls "Medicare for Y'all," which would allow every American to join Medicare, according to the Star-Telegram's voter guide. As a type 1 diabetic, Talarico passed legislation in the Texas House to cap insulin copays at $25 a month and to import lower-cost prescription drugs from Canada, according to his Texas House biography.
Talarico raised $68.6 million this cycle and had $21.5 million cash on hand as of July 31, according to the Texas Tribune. The U.S. Senate currently has 53 Republicans and 47 Democrats.
The winner of the Nov. 3 election will serve a six-year term alongside Sen. Ted Cruz. Fort Bend County voters can find polling locations and ballot information at VoteTexas.gov.
