Hurricane Polo won't hit Texas, but its moisture could drench Missouri City and Stafford around Tuesday, Sept. 29.

Polo, a Category 5 hurricane with 180-mph winds as of Friday, Sept. 25, is churning in the Pacific off Mexico's coast. The storm is expected to slam the Baja California Peninsula late Sunday into Monday before weakening inland. Texas won't see the storm itself. But forecasters say a cold front arriving Tuesday will pull Polo's deep tropical moisture northward, fueling heavy rain across the state, FOX 26 Houston reported.

The National Weather Service's Weather Prediction Center has issued a Level 3 out of 4 flash flood risk for parts of Texas by Tuesday, according to FOX Weather. The specific areas covered by that risk level have not been defined in available forecasts.

More than 80% of Texas is in some form of drought, with more than half the state in at least severe drought, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. AccuWeather noted that while flooding risk could become significant, any rain will bring further relief.

The Houston Chronicle reported Sept. 23 that the heaviest rain will likely be unevenly distributed. Some locations could see several rounds of storms while others receive little. A stalled or slowly moving front could focus repeated rounds of showers and thunderstorms across Central and Southeast Texas.

Heavy rain has overwhelmed Missouri City streets before. On July 23, the city reported that portions of Missouri City received more than 5 inches of rainfall within two hours, causing street ponding, flooded underpasses and road closures.

No statement from Fort Bend County's Office of Homeland Security and Emergency Management (HS&EM), Missouri City Emergency Management or Stafford officials addressing Polo's forecast impact has been issued as of Saturday, Sept. 26. During Tropical Storm Edouard on Sept. 1, Fort Bend County Judge Daniel Wong reminded residents to stay weather-aware and urged them to "Turn Around, Don't Drown" when encountering flooded roadways.

Fort Bend County has invested in flood infrastructure in recent years. In August 2024, the county secured more than $17 million in mitigation funding from the Texas General Land Office. It received additional federal funding for drainage restoration after Hurricane Beryl in October 2025.

Residents who lack flood insurance should note that most homeowner policies do not cover flood damage. New flood insurance policies can take up to 30 days to go into effect, according to a 2026 Fort Bend County hurricane preparedness guide. The county advises residents to sign up for alerts from their Municipal Utility District and county emergency management, and to follow the National Hurricane Center for updates.

Rain from Polo's moisture is expected to arrive around Tuesday, Sept. 29. Residents can monitor the latest local forecast from the National Weather Service's Houston office.