A tropical disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico could bring heavy rain and flash flooding to the greater Houston area, including Missouri City and Stafford, as early as Tuesday, Sept. 1.
Invest 97L, a tropical disturbance off the coast of Louisiana, had its development odds raised to 70% by Sunday evening, Aug. 30, according to Space City Weather. FOX Weather reported Sunday afternoon that the National Hurricane Center (NHC) had raised the system's 48-hour development odds to 50% before that evening jump.
Forecast models show the system drifting westward across the northern Gulf, with a projected landfall near Port Arthur or High Island during the second half of Tuesday. If it strengthens into a tropical storm, it would be named Edouard.
"The problem with these smaller systems like 97L is that they don't give you a whole lot of warning and then all of a sudden they ramp up," meteorologist Matt Lanza wrote Sunday on The Eyewall, as cited by Space City Weather.
The bigger concern is water. Whether or not 97L organizes into a named storm, FOX 26 Houston meteorologist Aaron Barker reported Sunday that the system could bring heavy rain to the Houston area as it moves inland. Space City Weather flagged growing concern about flash flooding potential, particularly north of Houston and east of Interstate 35.
Hurricane hunters were scheduled to investigate the system early Monday morning, Aug. 31, according to FOX Weather.
Rain threat follows Fort Bend burn ban
The approaching rain arrives while Fort Bend County remains under drought conditions. Commissioners approved an outdoor burn ban Aug. 27 for all unincorporated areas after the Texas A&M Forest Service determined the entire county was in drought. As we reported Aug. 28, the ban carries fines up to $500.
The Fort Bend County Fire Marshal's Office reported a Keetch-Byram Drought Index reading of 634 on Aug. 27, according to KPRC. That index runs from zero, meaning no moisture depletion, to 800, meaning extremely dry. Fort Bend joined about 190 other Texas counties with active burn bans as of late August, according to the Texas A&M Forest Service.
The county burn ban covers unincorporated Fort Bend County. Whether Missouri City and Stafford have enacted separate restrictions was not confirmed in available public records.
Peak season means time to check supplies
Thursday, Sept. 10, marks the statistical peak of the Atlantic hurricane season. Most tropical activity in a given year occurs from August through October, according to FOX 26 Houston.
Fort Bend County's Ready Fort Bend program recommends residents keep a three-day emergency supply kit that includes at least one gallon of water per person per day, non-perishable food, a flashlight, batteries and a portable phone charger. Details are available at the Fort Bend County emergency management page.
Residents can track Invest 97L through the National Hurricane Center's website.
